ERCOT DART Trading v2

Tomorrow's positions —

Long DART (buy DAM, sell RT)

Short DART (sell DAM, buy RT)

Forecast spread ($/MWh, right axis)

Per-hour signal breakdown

Conviction = calibrated P(trade is directionally right), from an online-fit map of ensemble agreement, volatility, and (inverted) LLM confidence. Shown for monitoring — the trade gate is currently off (a fixed threshold over-gated on the live distribution), so no hours are skipped on conviction alone; direction comes from the ensemble vote.

HE	DAM $	Quant priors		LLM decision		Conviction P̂ · gate .55	Position MW	Why — LLM rationale	Persistence
HE	DAM $	Bandit	LR	Spread	Conf.	Conviction P̂ · gate .55	Position MW	Why — LLM rationale	Spread	MW

Agent reasoning

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